Usman Salis
The euro continues to struggle against the dollar as the pair trades within a clearly defined bearish structure. Despite a recent bounce from support levels, the overall technical picture suggests limited upside potential. Market sentiment remains cautious, with fundamental factors continuing to favor USD strength while the euro faces headwinds from economic divergence and policy uncertainty.
EUR/USD Extends Its Rebound Toward Key Resistance
The EUR/USD pair continues to trade within a broader bearish structure, even as recent candles show a corrective climb.
The accompanying chart reinforces this caution, illustrating a move toward a well-defined resistance block that could trigger another downside leg.
Technical Levels Align with Bearish Sentiment
The 4-hour chart shows that EUR/USD recently bounced from support near 1.1490, initiating a limited recovery. This rebound is now approaching the next major technical barrier—the 1.1600–1.1630 supply zone—marked by previous rejections and heavy selling interest. The resistance zone aligns with prior breakdown points, while a dashed line represents intermediate liquidity where sellers previously rejected price action. The current upward correction appears shallow and lacks the strong momentum typical of trend reversals, with the bearish projection indicating an expected reversal from resistance targeting a retest of 1.1490. This pattern is consistent with classic continuation behavior: a counter-trend rally into resistance followed by a resumption of the dominant downtrend.
Key Factors Behind the Bearish Outlook
Several fundamental drivers continue to pressure the euro while supporting the stronger USD: the Federal Reserve maintains a more hawkish stance compared to a data-dependent, growth-constrained ECB; US economic indicators consistently outperform Europe's, particularly in manufacturing and employment; and ongoing global uncertainty is boosting demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset. Combined with the technical structure, these forces make it difficult for EURUSD to maintain any sustained upward momentum.
Usman Salis
