Saad Ullah
The Australian Dollar to US Dollar currency pair (AUD/USD) reached a new 2025 high of 0.6438 before pulling back during the American session, with the pair maintaining its upward trajectory despite the temporary setback.
AUD/USD Reaches Fresh 2025 High Before Pulling Back
The AUD/USD pair rallied strongly at the beginning of the week, touching 0.6438 before retreating during US trading hours. This fresh 2025 high was primarily driven by broad US Dollar weakness, as growing concerns about the health of the American economy undermined investor confidence in the world's largest economy.
The pair's retreat coincided with the opening of Wall Street, where US stocks experienced a significant collapse that weighed on the currency pair. The already negative market sentiment was further exacerbated by US President Donald Trump's latest criticism of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Trump once again criticized Powell for not lowering interest rates fast enough, calling him "Mr. Too Late" and a "loser." This political tension contributed to the market volatility, with major US indexes down approximately 3% each at the time of the report.
Meanwhile, Australian markets have remained closed since Thursday due to the Easter holiday period. Trading is expected to resume normally on Tuesday, although the local macroeconomic calendar will remain empty of significant data releases.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis Shows Continued Upward Bias
Despite the pullback, the AUD/USD pair was trading just above the 0.6400 level ahead of the Asian opening, marking its ninth consecutive day of gains. Technical readings from the daily chart suggest that while positive momentum may be easing, the overall risk remains skewed to the upside.
Technical indicators on the daily chart continue to develop well above their midlines, although they have lost some of their upward strength. The chart also shows that AUD/USD is trading above both its 20 and 100 Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), which is a bullish signal. However, a mildly bearish 200 SMA provides dynamic resistance at approximately 0.6470, which could present a challenge for further advances.
AUD/USD Short-Term Outlook Suggests Limited Pullback
In the near term, according to the 4-hour chart analysis, the ongoing retracement appears likely to be short-lived. Former intraday highs around the 0.6390 level are expected to provide near-term support, reinforced by a mildly bullish 20 SMA in the same area.
Additionally, the 100 and 200 SMAs are running parallel well below the shorter average, though with limited upward momentum. Technical indicators have retreated from their peaks and maintain downward slopes within positive territory, suggesting some consolidation may occur before the next directional move.
For traders and investors monitoring this currency pair, key support levels to watch include 0.6390, 0.6360, and 0.6325. On the upside, resistance levels are identified at 0.6435, 0.6470, and 0.6505.
Given the combination of ongoing dollar weakness, the pair's recent technical strength, and its position above key moving averages, the AUD/USD appears poised to maintain its predominantly bullish bias despite short-term fluctuations. However, market participants should remain vigilant for any significant shifts in either the Australian economic outlook or US monetary policy statements that could impact this trajectory.
Saad Ullah
