Saad Ullah
EUR/USD just hit a wall and it's not pretty. After multiple attempts to break higher failed near a key supply zone, the pair is showing all the classic signs of a technical breakdown. The hourly chart tells the story - fresh bearish structure is forming and traders are already positioning for the next leg down. With 1.1700 liquidity in their crosshairs, bears are feeling confident about this setup.
Technical Picture Points South
- H1 Fair Value Gap Rejection: Price tried to reclaim the intraday imbalance but got rejected hard, showing sellers are in control
- Break of Structure Confirmed: The recent downside break sealed the deal on a bearish shift in market structure
- SMT Divergence Warned of Trouble: Bearish divergence flashed before the selloff, giving smart money the heads up
- 1.1700 Liquidity Target: That's where the sell-side liquidity is parked and where this move is likely headed
The fundamentals aren't doing the euro any favors either. The dollar keeps flexing on stronger US data while ECB uncertainty leaves the euro looking weak. Risk sentiment is also tilting toward safe havens, which doesn't help EUR's cause.
What's Next
The writing's on the wall unless EUR/USD can somehow recapture that 1.1780-1.1800 supply zone. But right now, that looks like a long shot. The path of least resistance points straight to 1.1700 where liquidity is waiting to get swept. That's where buyers might finally step in, but until then, it's the bears' show.
Saad Ullah
